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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Severe Thunderstorms for WNY later this April 20, 2017

Severe thunderstorms are possible today evening with damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible based on wi d sheer and wind profiles. All severe weather is likely after 8 pm to about 11 pm today this will allow the lake breeze to diminish allowing the Niagara Frontier to destabilize. Typically lake breeze is set up from the daytime heating and because allowing a CAP on the atmosphere making any thunderstorms to fall apart rapidly. This lake breeze will be limited due to a rapid advancement of a strong warm from will push north allowing the temperatures to soar into the lower 70s in places. This late day heating will limited the lake breeze influence enhancing the severe threat. In the mid afternoon Buffalo Batavia should be in the mid 50s with that warm front pushing through late dinner hour limiting that aforementioned lake breeze. I will be monitoring this very closely. Here is the forecasted radar from the NAM forecast model what is in good agreement with this system. I do feel that the instability of the atmosphere to be but more unstable being the potential for short lived cloud clearing and if this does materialize i would expect a few more tornadoes based on the wind shear and strong low level divergence and upper air cool pool aloft. This has the potential be be a dangerous situation. Because of this reason I expect the spc to haver us in western new York in enhanced risk for severe weather. More details to be updated by mid afternoon tomorrow at www.andysweathersite.com please monitor the local weather and download The Weather Channel App to be alerted on any severe weather watches or warnings.    http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/scripts/mkgif.php?rate=&pause=&startLabel=0&start=0&endLabel=60&end=60&type=2017042000-NAMNST-NE-prec-radar&saveGIF=

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