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Friday, November 16, 2018

My Winter 2018-19 forecast.

I haven't done a video blog to this yet because I am having trouble communicating. But here is my texted forecast. I will share the video shortly for this.

Here is my very detailed forecast.

Because I am a weather guru, I am sharing my forecast for this coming winter. This winter's set up is forecasted to be a weak El Nino what almost ever weather station has said. Now I may be technical in this post so if anything that isnt specified for anyone to understand the term please let me know.

The setup... The weak El Nino like said above most importantly it is forecasted to be an eastern based el Nino. This means the warmer waters above 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal is expected to be near South America compared to its placement. This may set a subtropical jet that may set up over this warmer waters and be over the southern California into the Texas and Misourri area that will then combine with the Artic Jet listed below.

A positive PDO or warmer waters off the Golf of Alaska and Barien Strait. This will allow two things. The jet artic streem will set An amplified ridge over the Alaska and off the western coast. This will allow a amplified trough to form the central to mid west through the east coast. There will be a mild trough to the west of this amplified ridge and this trough will be over the eastern Asia near Russia, Northern China and Japan. A note here the Artic Jet isnt actually named Artic I forgot the scientific name so those who know it comments are appreciated.

Other factors of ocean temperatures and how they may play a roll into this winter. The Atlantic Ocean especially off the coast from NJ to Florida is much above normal temperatures and the Gulf of Mexico is extremely warmer than normal. These warmer than normal temperatures will amplify moisture to be included into any system that sets up and may dump a lot of rain and winter precipitation. I will go into more details on this below.

My Forecast... before I go into details the jet streem in the west is known as the PNA and is stood for Pacific-North America Oscillation. This PNA in its Positive Phase makes a Ridge in the West. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is the jet streem in the east coast. In its negative phase it makes a trough in the east. Because of this amplified weather pattern there may be what is known as an atmospheric blocking pattern set up off the coast of Iceland. This is an area of higher pressure or above normal heights. This blocking will prevent any storm system to easily move eastward out to the Atlantic and will have three options move north of that high, move south of that high, and or simply just stall in the east while it waits to move in either direction.

Now we have the terms here what does this mean far as the weather? It should be similar winter to 1977 78 and as most recently 2014 15. It is going to be warmer to much warmer than normal in the West. Depending on the placement or development of the Subtropical jet in the west SouthWestern states could be wetter than normal. This is a huge if. The Northwest will be very warm than normal and be very dryer than normal. The central US... the South Central US into what is known as Dixi Ally (2nd tornado ally) will be wetter and slightly cooler than normal. Except a bit more of snow fall. North Central will be cooler to colder than normal. A near normal to slightly below normal precipitation. The East... the Great Lakes to Northeast. Much colder than normal temperatures and a big time much more snow especially from Buffalo Eastward. The South East... there will be more precipitation and more winter precipitation especially mid Atlantic area. The temperatures will be much below normal then average and even far south as Milami Florida may get cold at times.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Thursday, November 1, 2018

I am having personal matters so I will have to postpone my update to my Winter Forecast.


Because, I am having to go for yet another test on my autism, and as result, I am off my meds for this. I am not able to communicate well or share any updates until after my testing and when I can resume my meds. I am hoping to have an update by November 15 time frame. This will be my final Winter 2019 Outlook. I hope to see you then.


About the Writer and where to get more information on learning about the Weather - Autism and Weather


This post is being shared to multiple Facebook Pages all of course I own, My Weather Facebook Page, My Website at www.andysweathersite.com and on my personal page and a group I belong to. I invite you to my site where I may do more videos on this topic.

A little you may not know about me. I am Andrew Ditch, I have been misdiagnosed with everything and an mental condition not autism. I was recently diagnosed with Level 2 Autism but could be either way which is why I must get retested next Tuesday to confirm if it is severe, or mild or if it is Level 2. Everyone now I been diagnosed sees I have it, but they want to just confirm it. I was 31 when I was diagnosed with Autism, I was 29 when I was questioned that I had it by a neurologist who diagnosed me with Tourette Syndrome when he then said I had autism and he misdiagnosed me. I am currently 33. Enough said. The main topic of this post is the weather and related to Autism…
On my pre-questions for my autism test was a question for my starting preferred topic when talking to someone new and when someone I know. One of the multiple-choice answers where about the weather. So, my question for you is how many people with Autism shares my passion on the weather either wants to forecast it, talks about the current conditions, or shares an interest. For me it was all above. I will take my time on sharing a few learning sites for everyone who enjoys the weather and where they can learn more.

1.       My first website I learned off of, Shared to me by a meteorologist at my local ABC News Station WKBW here in Buffalo NY. The Weather Prediction Education. This is an advanced learning website for someone who already knows a bit about the weather and is considered some topics college level material.
2.       A mid-grade to college level You Tube Play List for those who need a visual like me. This channel has multi paly lists so I will share his channel and the play lists…

3.       NOAA NWS Learn About The Weather https://www.weather.gov/crp/weather_education
6.       Weather Underground https://www.wunderground.com/education/education.asp

For those who know a basic understanding on the weather. Those with advanced communication skills associated with autism like me. This is where you can learn about becoming a Skywarn Weather Spotter for your local and national NWS WFOs. NWS stands for National Weather Service, WFO stands for Weather Forecast Office by the NWS or NOAA. NOAA Stands for National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration a USA Government Organization
1.       Non-NWS Skywarn Informational Site, It is run by the Ham Radio Operators Site I believe do not quote me. But has good information on SKYWARN Program. https://www.skywarn.org/online-training/
2.       Online Training Site – NON-NWS SKYWARN but is a good for those who wish to learn more offered than the basic Skywarn Training offered by your Local NWS WFO. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23
3.       NOAA SKYWARN Official Page - https://training.weather.gov/wxspot.php
4.       NWS Storm Prediction Center SKYWARN Training Check Lists. https://www.weather.gov/oun/skywarn-spotter

Just a side note this is a volunteer reporting for the NWS. It is required to report any reportable weather events based on your training, but you will be considered a Public Safety Official with completion of the Certificate. I believe you also must be 18 years of age but it is also something kids can ask to go join. They do talk about weather safety and severe weather, winter weather, and other climate weather conditions. Simply you can visit your local NWS Office Skywarn Trainer by visiting www.weather.gov and simply click on the location closest to you and on their site should be SKYWARN Section either at the footer of the page, or just above. If you need help locating such local Skywarn page and contact info please comment or PM me and I can try to offer my best to get contact information. You may also contact a Meteorologist at your local WFO at www.weather.gov and click on your local area and under the Local Programs section in the footer is a Office Staff link with emails. I would start off by emailing the MIC or Meteorologist In Charge.
Forecast model and to make forecasts…

My top 3 Weather Pages To Make A Forecast…

Other Pages

Paid Weather Site

Must Have Weather Apps for Android – Not sure about IOS Unless an * is next to it.
The Weather Channel*
RadarScope* It’s a paid Advances Weather Radar App. Recommended for SKYWARN Spotters and Storm Chasers. It’s a Level II and III Radar App.
Weather Bug*
wX by Joshua Tee – May be only on Android But a go to Weather Guru App. Alerts you of national SPC, CPC, NPC, and other Alerts. You do have to configure it the way you like. No Follow Me Feature so download the Weather Channel App for current weather conditions and Real Time Weather Alerts. This app consumes a lot of battery so have it power saving mode or place this app in sleep mode when not using.

I hope to do more on this topic on Weather Education and maybe on Weather and Autism... Stay Tuned...


Friday, October 19, 2018

What's to come

Hey guys I'm Andy www.andysweathersite.com and with the update for what's to come on the blog. I am going to be doing an update video this weekend sometime probably on Saturday tomorrow for my up-to-date Winter forecast with the latest information available to me. It should be finalized by Sunday and it'll be updated for you guys there on Sunday www.andysweathersite.com