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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Andy's Wx Site News Update

Auther - Andrew Ditch
Date Written - April 17, 2019 12:22 PM EDT
Updated - April 17, 2019 12:22 PM EDT

I have been busy to be doing things, on my own with no support except my family, friends, Adult Proctective Services, and being linked to a Indipendant Living Center for help me learn life skills. A bit an update, I have Autism Spectrum Disorder and its said to be severe. In orer for me to recieve services such as group home, I need to get testing for it. My family had never wanted me tested for some reason. So I have more issues then these. I am Autism, Sensory Processing Disorder, Confirmed Audeotory Processing Disorder. Then not confirmed yet but is questioned by a doctor while Andy was in jail for a bad meltdown, or head bang meltdown. By the way I was on 8 day head bang free Meltdown and stared Day 9 today with one and stopped it afer seeing me. But needed bit extra help from crises services. I had a night mirror for the abuse I had gone through at my parents house. I wont go in details on this. For those people who helped me in jail, I need to thank you for help and I was trying so much and never had any help before in my life. For my to learn meltdown control in 3 weeks of practicing a self calming skill by an easy flow chart. I will share the picture later here as I will need my computer for it.

I am going to be getting my new desktop I built later today, and the things I need to fix my laptop as it had somethiing with a virus on it. So I am also getting myprofessional Microphone for my blog, and my router as my hotel room has a RG45 Connector. RG45 is not RG11 this is the phone cable, I am talking about the techncal name for the eathernet cable to connect router to modem or router to computer. In my first video, I am going to share new updates to my Andy's Weather Site far as new blogs go. I am going to throw a bit of a teaser here. I am going to do some custom graphics for my forecasts and custom maps and things to have better user expierience. Also in any web update I will have a new conversation topic foremat, including a intro teaser, and a intro that is short, and grapics, and a trivia question for you to answer, then a preview of any planed blogs or forecasts. On good weather days plan a daily recording of the National Weather Forecast, then the short term out look for Buffalo, NY then extended detailed weather forecast with few weather data maps to show you how we makke forecasts. I will also be doing any updated inclimate weather conditions on both an urgent pre-recording blog, and severe weather live stream blogs. Stay tuned. I will be doing a web series on weather safety once in a group home to share an actual ways to be safe and practice drills for tornadoes, flooding and should be like a fire drill that you and your kids should be doing. Me being autistic I can  say having repitition safety drills is very important to praactice in invent of actual emgency. In a video, I love to share a night time drill where power is off, and stimulated resque. The knowing how, what to do before tornado happens, but what to expect about the resque and if  traped how long to be resqued, and what will happen after being resqued are important for us to know the unknown as much as possible because a meltdown could happen for this and does happen to me. In very short term, I will be updating my disater check list for you  download, and a page with simple steps and tips to  keep you, your family, your nighbors, and your pets safe.

Saturday, February 23, 2019

High Wind Warning Preparation during the High Wind Storm Feb 24 -25 2019



High Wind Warning from February 24 at 7 AM EST, Until February 25 at 10 AM EST 2019

Written at 2:50 AM EST
Updated at 4:30 AM EST

Written by: Andrew Ditch Armature Meteorologist, Certified NWS SKYWARN Storm Spotter Until December 31, 2020.


Video 



Important Key Notes: 

High Wind Safety is important to us like any weather or man-made disaster. To keep your family safe please prepare a disaster kit as said in this article and video and download the check list at top of page. Stay in an interior room away from windows, or if in mobile home, trailer, or high-profile vehicle please go to sturdy structure away from windows. Windows may break at winds over 60 MPH and especially at 70 - 75 MPH Wind Gusts. Winds gusts over 80 MPH are possible especially over North Buffalo into Grand Island and Niagara Falls New York. Winds will be out of the southwest and south early before the strong cold front that should pass quickly by 10 AM and start the peak wind gusts out of the West. The peak highest winds should be generally between 10 or 11 AM to around Midnight tomorrow and will remain strong overnight.



Sources:
NWS Buffalo Warnings Page for Zip Code 14150 - https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ010&warncounty=NYC029&firewxzone=NYZ010&local_place1=Tonawanda%20NY&product1=High+Wind+Warning&lat=43.01&lon=-78.88#.XHJHcndFwuU

NWS Buffalo Forecast for Zip Code - https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=43.01&textField2=-78.88#.XHJLgndFwuX


NWS Buffalo Home Page - https://www.weather.gov/buf/


NWS Buffalo Forecasters Discussion Page - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on



NWS Buffalo Hourly Weather Graph - https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=buf&TypeDefault=graphical

NWS Buffalo 2d Weather Graphics - https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/buf.php 


Wind Damage based on Wind Beafort Scale - https://www.hwn.org/resources/bws.html

Buffalo News Article on the High Wind Event - https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/23/deadhead-trailers-banned-from-thruway/


NWS Storm Prediction Center - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Winter Weather 75 MPH Winds Buffalo, NY Western New York



Sources - National Weather Service Buffalo Website - Forecast Zone zip-code 14150 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=43.01&textField2=-78.88#.XHI9THdFwuX


National Weather Service Buffalo Website Warnings Page for Zip-Code Zone 14150 - https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ010&warncounty=NYC029&firewxzone=NYZ010&local_place1=Tonawanda%20NY&product1=High+Wind+Warning&lat=43.01&lon=-78.88#.XHJHcndFwuU

NWS Storm Prediction Center - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

NWS Home Page - www.weather.gov

NWS Buffalo Home Page - www.weather.gov/buf/


My First Weather Forecast in ages

I been busy and been doing forecasts in the busy stressful personal life. I am going to do a weather forecast in a bit and will include the severe weather including tornado, wind, and winter threat part on this Mid-March like storm system. Stay Tuned it should be up and running in around or just after midnight pending on the length of video and my hardware now renders videos much faster as I upgraded my desktop into much faster computer and better graphics and I may have over killed my computer far as the graphics because I wanted something that I would not need to upgrade later and that it would help me with faster video rendering.

High Wind Warning For WNY


High Wind Warning


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ001>003-010-011-085-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0002.190224T1200Z-190225T1500Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Orchard Park, and Springville 658 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From early Sunday morning through late Monday morning. The strongest winds will be Sunday afternoon and evening. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down numerous trees and power lines and result in widespread power outages. Power may be out for several days in some areas. Shallow rooted pines will be particularly vulnerable. Property damage is also likely, especially to roofs and siding. Buildings under construction and old deteriorating buildings may be damaged significantly. Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at times, and empty tractor trailers may be in danger of being blown off the road. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and will result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$

Lakeshore Flood Warning


Lakeshore Hazard Message National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ001-010-019-085-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0001.190224T1200Z-190225T0900Z/ Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 652 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...Lake Erie shore in Erie and Chautauqua counties and the Upper Niagara River in Erie and Niagara counties. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...Powerful southwest winds will gust up to 75 mph. This will result in the water level at Buffalo rising to 9 to 11 feet above low water datum. This rise will also break up ice on Lake Erie and result in significant ice movement. * TIMING...From 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the Buffalo Harbor and waterfront. If water levels exceed 10 feet above low water datum flooding may occur in the Old First Ward section of Buffalo and at Canalside. Rising waters will also push ice chunks onshore, potentially damaging structures. Ice will also get pushed across the ice boom and into the Upper Niagara River resulting in damage along the Upper Niagara River shoreline. The ice may dam up at river outlets and result in flooding near river mouths. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further information. && $$

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ010-011-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Sorry for not posting much lately

I have been being verbally abused by my dad. I am safe in a hospital and my dad is I learned in jail Kenmore mercy called the police to stick up for me. I have Severe autism and too upset to post anything. I have some winter news to post later on tonight if I feel up to it. I have to prevent a big meltdown coming.

Friday, November 16, 2018

My Winter 2018-19 forecast.

I haven't done a video blog to this yet because I am having trouble communicating. But here is my texted forecast. I will share the video shortly for this.

Here is my very detailed forecast.

Because I am a weather guru, I am sharing my forecast for this coming winter. This winter's set up is forecasted to be a weak El Nino what almost ever weather station has said. Now I may be technical in this post so if anything that isnt specified for anyone to understand the term please let me know.

The setup... The weak El Nino like said above most importantly it is forecasted to be an eastern based el Nino. This means the warmer waters above 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal is expected to be near South America compared to its placement. This may set a subtropical jet that may set up over this warmer waters and be over the southern California into the Texas and Misourri area that will then combine with the Artic Jet listed below.

A positive PDO or warmer waters off the Golf of Alaska and Barien Strait. This will allow two things. The jet artic streem will set An amplified ridge over the Alaska and off the western coast. This will allow a amplified trough to form the central to mid west through the east coast. There will be a mild trough to the west of this amplified ridge and this trough will be over the eastern Asia near Russia, Northern China and Japan. A note here the Artic Jet isnt actually named Artic I forgot the scientific name so those who know it comments are appreciated.

Other factors of ocean temperatures and how they may play a roll into this winter. The Atlantic Ocean especially off the coast from NJ to Florida is much above normal temperatures and the Gulf of Mexico is extremely warmer than normal. These warmer than normal temperatures will amplify moisture to be included into any system that sets up and may dump a lot of rain and winter precipitation. I will go into more details on this below.

My Forecast... before I go into details the jet streem in the west is known as the PNA and is stood for Pacific-North America Oscillation. This PNA in its Positive Phase makes a Ridge in the West. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is the jet streem in the east coast. In its negative phase it makes a trough in the east. Because of this amplified weather pattern there may be what is known as an atmospheric blocking pattern set up off the coast of Iceland. This is an area of higher pressure or above normal heights. This blocking will prevent any storm system to easily move eastward out to the Atlantic and will have three options move north of that high, move south of that high, and or simply just stall in the east while it waits to move in either direction.

Now we have the terms here what does this mean far as the weather? It should be similar winter to 1977 78 and as most recently 2014 15. It is going to be warmer to much warmer than normal in the West. Depending on the placement or development of the Subtropical jet in the west SouthWestern states could be wetter than normal. This is a huge if. The Northwest will be very warm than normal and be very dryer than normal. The central US... the South Central US into what is known as Dixi Ally (2nd tornado ally) will be wetter and slightly cooler than normal. Except a bit more of snow fall. North Central will be cooler to colder than normal. A near normal to slightly below normal precipitation. The East... the Great Lakes to Northeast. Much colder than normal temperatures and a big time much more snow especially from Buffalo Eastward. The South East... there will be more precipitation and more winter precipitation especially mid Atlantic area. The temperatures will be much below normal then average and even far south as Milami Florida may get cold at times.