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Sunday, October 6, 2019

Our New Website Layout

Our New Website Layout



Written By Andrew Ditch 

Written on: October 6, 2019 at 5:45 PM ET

Updated: October 6, 2019 at 5:45 PM ET



Today's Video 

Our New Website and Services to come




Thank you for your time in being entertained by today's content. Please we want to hear from you on ways to improve your experience on being a loyal viewer. Please Contact Us on ways to better our content for everyone. No one's voice goes unheard by me! Keep watching and please subscribe to our Channel and YouTube and all Social Media Platforms to stay updated on today's never ending changing weather. Please comment in the comments below. Stay tuned to the answer to today's trivia question tomorrow!

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

WNY Forecast for October 1, 2019

Weather Forecast For October 1, 2019



Written By Andrew Ditch 

Written on: October 1, 2019 at 3:20 AM EDT

Updated: October 1, 2019 at 3:20 AM EDT



Today's Video 

Video on YouTube to be added to blog later. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOdgMfpiPUTh4cAM4xr4qtA

Today's Detailed Text


 Buffalo, NY Weather News 

Today could be potentially dangerous day after a possible record breaking day. A day with high moisture levels and 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 80s with due point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s making a warm and moist atmosphere. There will be some modest amount of instability and lower end of wind sheer profiles. A lot of wind energy with this system. Because I give the wind sheer values a total of 1.5 its because the overall wind sheer values. This is because when looking at the directional sheer you see an unidirectional change in wind direction within height, and a mid to high end speed sheer with increase of wind speed within height. The values below are simple scale measurements for you to understand. From 1 to 5 1 being no to low level or nothing to 5 to high level potential or severe. 

Temperatures a 4
Moisture a 5
Instability a 3
Wind sheer values (combind) 1.5
Directional sheer 2
Speed sheer 4
Over all effective sheer 1
Forcing or wind energy 5

Over all severe weather conditions 3.5

The primary risk with these storms if develops today would be damaging winds to 70 mph, sub severe to marginal severe hail, and very low risk for tornado. It will be a evening overnight where a medium risk for flash flooding and frequent lightning. 











An update is possible by 2 pm but possible after 6 pm. I have speech therapy today at 3 and I am struggling with a bad bad head banging meltdowns I hurt badly with and see my doctor Thursday. I hate autism. Thank you for your support.

 Today's Trivia! 




Thank you for your time in being entertained by today's content. Please we want to hear from you on ways to improve your experience on being a loyal viewer. Please Contact Us on ways to better our content for everyone. No one's voice goes unheard by me! Keep watching and please subscribe to our Channel and YouTube and all Social Media Platforms to stay updated on today's never ending changing weather. Please comment in the comments below. Stay tuned to the answer to today's trivia question tomorrow!

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Thank You For Being Family with Us - New Services To come

Weather Forecast For September 17, 2019



Written By Andrew Ditch  

Written on: Tuesday, September 17, 2019 1:55 AM ET

Updated: Tuesday, September 17, 2019 1:55 AM ET



Today's Video 


Today's Detailed Text

National Weather News 

News Updates I am trying to get ready for a late bed time and will add text tomorrow. In summary I am waiting for autism testing to be able to get a group home to better myself. 

I want to thank everyone here and please enjoy my weather website with new and improvements on the way. I will upload a video tomorrow before speech in early afternoon on the changes and add the text to this post. 

I will do a our Fall 2019 outlook late for tomorrow scheduled for emailed for our subscribers on Wednesday. Our Winter 2019 - 20 Outlook will be made on Wednesday and uploaded for email deliver on Thursday. 

So in the mean time, feel free in providing comments and suggestion. Thank you for being our family. Please enter your email address for you to be prepared for this never ending changing weather we live in. See you tomorrow!


 Long Range Outlook For the USA 





 Buffalo, NY Weather News 





 Today's Trivia! 




Thank you for your time in being entertained by today's content. Please we want to hear from you on ways to improve your experience on being a loyal viewer. Please Contact Us on ways to better our content for everyone. No one's voice goes unheard by me! Keep watching and please subscribe to our Channel and YouTube and all Social Media Platforms to stay updated on today's never ending changing weather. Please comment in the comments below. Stay tuned to the answer to today's trivia question tomorrow!

Saturday, May 18, 2019

A Personal Note - About my Autism

A Personal Note - About my Autism 

Written By Andrew Ditch 
Written on: May 18, 2019 4:00 AM EDT
Updated: May 18, 2019 4:00 AM EDT

First of all trigger warning. 

I am crying for watching me struggle with talking. Verbal language is hard. One word miss fire sets the entire train wreck. I can't talk after it happens. Below the videos I share my top Priority in getting help including group home. I am not looking for autism and developmental testing on May 29. Been told by people I likely have a mind of a kid 5 to 8 years old in a 33 year old person. Yet I only want positive people and to bring smiles to everyone and make others happy for my choice behaviors. My goal in life to help others and yet receive help from others. It's the dream 2 way support system I so want. I also am a very social person but people's behaviors, language, intentions,  and feelings are so hard for me to understand. I so enjoy being around others. Please if you see me in public start talking about the Weather and you got a new friend.  I am easy to give in to your beliefs but it's not what I believe in. This may make me easy or vulnerable to bad choice behaviors of others. I like to retool people's vocabulary instead of calling out the person name for bad behavior say it indirectly with I sometimes get annoyed by others poor choice behaviors of others being bossy. Or I get very upset and hurts my eyes when I dont understand why others seemingly poor choice behaviors to be loud in my ears. Oh My God Thunderstorms and afraid of head banging meltdown....keep me safe.

My cries for help videos.


Video 1 - look at my room struggles



Video 2 - fidget spinners Samsung Galaxy Watch App and severe trouble talking with words.



Video 3 - sensory problems and other things.


Sensory Problems

first I am low blood sugar and this could cause language changes for me. plus me in meltdown and need to deep breathe and try to relax. first relax then drink orange juice some sensory things that I love peanuts and hot sauce. I love Frank's hot sauce the extra hot sauce is best. my verbal communication is just too bad for me to do my video or weather forecast for this summer Outlook. I will write it out later today with rendering video for YouTube and website later today for those who subscribe regularly I am having troubles in life, legal issues, homeless, and trouble getting group home and proper help with autism testing. I dont normally need an app to talk. I am doing this to help me not meltdown as I was before. I could tell you if I didnt relax I would of had bad meltdown that would hurt. but relaxing. I invite you to my weather Site at Andy's Weather Site dot com for my forecast. I will be using this app to help me make it easier for you to understand it. and again is weather in my topic every day and every time I dont have words or been told it's my conversation starter. I learned and not even aware of weather as conversation starter. but do know it's always starts with tornados. I simply can't understand why tornado would be exciting. so would hurt my ears from sound and the pressure drop other say. the lightning and power flashes would hurt eyes. 

few things I need help to make this easier. I want help with these items

1. sensory problems to be easier to not be sensitive to.  light and sound are close equals then smell and touch. put a ratio to these 1:10 because the most easiest to 10:10 being most intolerant to me. 

a. 10:10 lights, yellow tinted 12:10, red tinted 10:10, green tinted 8:10, blue tinted 4:10, Light Emitting Diode or LED at low light 3:10 i.e. my light on wall at that brightness, 1:10 the LED Rope Light, these are blue. I will give white tint the projector 5:10, rope light 4:10, yellow projector 10:10, led rope light 7:10, CFL 10:10, the standard light bulb Thomas Edison invented 7:10 at 40 w. every day things, tablet 3:10, LED Monitor/TV Medium Brightness at standard 60 Hertz resh rate 6:10 slow motion like news 10:10 my favorite hockey or the weather channel,  fast movies like star wars marvel spiderman 12:10.

b. sound, low rumbling noise like a train without horn10:10, thunder in distances at around 8 miles plus night 8:10 day 7:10, close less than 1 mile day 13:10 night 15:10 (this is really intense), high pitch squeal quiet 6:10, loud 12:10, movie theater surrounded sound 8:10, concert without feeling vibration with 32 decibel ear plug 8:10 vibration to point of the feel hurts skin 14:10, sudden pot or pan fall 10:10, earth quake of 3.0 on Richter scale in Buffalo 8:10 4.0 12:10.

c. smell poop of self 6:10, poop of others 9:10, throw up any 1:10, body odor of pit stink 7:10, fish 7:10, pizza -1:10, spicy hot chili 5:10, burnt toast 6:10, smoke wood 5:10 cigarette 12:10 bother breathing badly, matches of sulfur-4:10, sulfer dioxide or lightning or electric burning-8:10 no sensation, burning plastic 4:10, new shower curtain 6:10, fresh pee in diaper 3:10, lavender -8:10.

d. touch sweat shirt 6:10, sweat shirt rough 8:10, long sleeve cotton shirt  4:10, cotton t shirt  2:10, Haines X Temp Technology Socks 2:10, standard cotton socks 6:10, sneakers 8:10, boots gloves or hats 10:10, jeans 5:10, sweat pants without fuzzies or ankle band 3:10, west swim trunks 12:10, wet cheap store diapers 10:10, wet expensive diapers 4:10, bear hug or sensory hug -12:10 hug to love 12:10, light touch on shoulder  8:10, pressure touch on shoulder 2:10, hand shake 7:10, eye to eye contact 12:10, tapping  -4:10, weight compression vest tight -12:10, snug -8:10, 20 pound blanket-7:10, small space like Privacy bed tent -4:10.

e. taste hot sauce Frank's extra hot 4:10 with burn relaxing, peanut -2:10, crunchy potato chips  -2:10 to  -4:10, mashed potatoes gravy  8:10, cooked to over cooked macaroni and cheese  12:10 firm 2:10, pizza Pepperoni cheese Pizzq Hut Hand Tosed 2:10, chicken plain -2:10 hamburger plain 4:10, fish breaded 12:10 unbreaded 15:10.

f. environmental slightest pressure change 2:10 big pressure change  4:10, temperature changes plus minus 1 degrees Celsius  5:10 more than 2 degrees Celsius  10:10, humidity change 5:10. question to eltromegnitic field as I need to sleep with head to feet south to north easiest or east to west.

Goals in life and needed support by others.

Things that simple for most I struggle with. Things and needs I want help with

My Top Priority List includes Group Home and Day Program

1. Sensory problems
2. Meltdowns include the ones dont hurt
3. Life skills
4. Routine

My wants list


1. Friends - help me meet friends
2 language - understanding others language, intent, and communication of others
3. Family
4. Better communication skills
5. Help others from my life experiences
6. Be with people - positive people and those who have down syndrome who simple smile and have gifts of their own. I truly dont believe in level of IQ it's more important to me to be positive in life, be happy, and best of all people who enjoy others like me and simply understand others my difficulties.


My like list


1. Better communication all around
2. Lots of friends who hang around me
3. Be and meet everyone and especially famous people
4. College with masters no less in science of meteorology and dream school look at wishes
5. See a tornado for first time with experience storm chaser


Wishes


1. Everyone to get along with everyone. Global peace and peace within my great country USA. The global be United but separated nations.
2. Go to meteorology school at Oklahoma University and get a Doctoral Degree in the Science of Atmospheric Meteorology with Severe Weather,  Storm Systems, Mesoscale Meteorology Expert and Microscale Meteorology Expert to improve severe weather, tornado, lightning, hurricane, and winter storm forecasting including High and Low Pressure Systems.
3. A dream Meteorology improvements, somewhat true lightning strick forecasting and lighting out look forecast and research. Be able to save life of human and animals from short term Weather disasters with 48 hour notice including tornado risk at city level and flooding risk city level. Be able to help farmers in growing crops of all kinds in microclimate and short term, medium term, long term,  and year out seasonal forecasting.

Friday, May 17, 2019

My Struggles in Life and Little Things Not East Yet Smart and Abled

A Personal Note - About my Autism 

Written By Andrew Ditch 
Written on: May 18, 2019 4:00 AM EDT
Updated: May 18, 2019 4:00 AM EDT

First of all trigger warning. 

I am crying for watching me struggle with talking. Verbal language is hard. One word miss fire sets the entire train wreck. I can't talk after it happens. Below the videos I share my top Priority in getting help including group home. I am not looking for autism and developmental testing on May 29. Been told by people I likely have a mind of a kid 5 to 8 years old in a 33 year old person. Yet I only want positive people and to bring smiles to everyone and make others happy for my choice behaviors. My goal in life to help others and yet receive help from others. It's the dream 2 way support system I so want. I also am a very social person but people's behaviors, language, intentions,  and feelings are so hard for me to understand. I so enjoy being around others. Please if you see me in public start talking about the Weather and you got a new friend.  I am easy to give in to your beliefs but it's not what I believe in. This may make me easy or vulnerable to bad choice behaviors of others. I like to retool people's vocabulary instead of calling out the person name for bad behavior say it indirectly with I sometimes get annoyed by others poor choice behaviors of others being bossy. Or I get very upset and hurts my eyes when I dont understand why others seemingly poor choice behaviors to be loud in my ears. Oh My God Thunderstorms and afraid of head banging meltdown....keep me safe.

My cries for help videos.


Video 1 - look at my room struggles



Video 2 - fidget spinners Samsung Galaxy Watch App and severe trouble talking with words.



Video 3 - sensory problems and other things.


Sensory Problems

first I am low blood sugar and this could cause language changes for me. plus me in meltdown and need to deep breathe and try to relax. first relax then drink orange juice some sensory things that I love peanuts and hot sauce. I love Frank's hot sauce the extra hot sauce is best. my verbal communication is just too bad for me to do my video or weather forecast for this summer Outlook. I will write it out later today with rendering video for YouTube and website later today for those who subscribe regularly I am having troubles in life, legal issues, homeless, and trouble getting group home and proper help with autism testing. I dont normally need an app to talk. I am doing this to help me not meltdown as I was before. I could tell you if I didnt relax I would of had bad meltdown that would hurt. but relaxing. I invite you to my weather Site at Andy's Weather Site dot com for my forecast. I will be using this app to help me make it easier for you to understand it. and again is weather in my topic every day and every time I dont have words or been told it's my conversation starter. I learned and not even aware of weather as conversation starter. but do know it's always starts with tornados. I simply can't understand why tornado would be exciting. so would hurt my ears from sound and the pressure drop other say. the lightning and power flashes would hurt eyes. 

few things I need help to make this easier. I want help with these items

1. sensory problems to be easier to not be sensitive to.  light and sound are close equals then smell and touch. put a ratio to these 1:10 because the most easiest to 10:10 being most intolerant to me. 

a. 10:10 lights, yellow tinted 12:10, red tinted 10:10, green tinted 8:10, blue tinted 4:10, Light Emitting Diode or LED at low light 3:10 i.e. my light on wall at that brightness, 1:10 the LED Rope Light, these are blue. I will give white tint the projector 5:10, rope light 4:10, yellow projector 10:10, led rope light 7:10, CFL 10:10, the standard light bulb Thomas Edison invented 7:10 at 40 w. every day things, tablet 3:10, LED Monitor/TV Medium Brightness at standard 60 Hertz resh rate 6:10 slow motion like news 10:10 my favorite hockey or the weather channel,  fast movies like star wars marvel spiderman 12:10.

b. sound, low rumbling noise like a train without horn10:10, thunder in distances at around 8 miles plus night 8:10 day 7:10, close less than 1 mile day 13:10 night 15:10 (this is really intense), high pitch squeal quiet 6:10, loud 12:10, movie theater surrounded sound 8:10, concert without feeling vibration with 32 decibel ear plug 8:10 vibration to point of the feel hurts skin 14:10, sudden pot or pan fall 10:10, earth quake of 3.0 on Richter scale in Buffalo 8:10 4.0 12:10.

c. smell poop of self 6:10, poop of others 9:10, throw up any 1:10, body odor of pit stink 7:10, fish 7:10, pizza -1:10, spicy hot chili 5:10, burnt toast 6:10, smoke wood 5:10 cigarette 12:10 bother breathing badly, matches of sulfur-4:10, sulfer dioxide or lightning or electric burning-8:10 no sensation, burning plastic 4:10, new shower curtain 6:10, fresh pee in diaper 3:10, lavender -8:10.

d. touch sweat shirt 6:10, sweat shirt rough 8:10, long sleeve cotton shirt  4:10, cotton t shirt  2:10, Haines X Temp Technology Socks 2:10, standard cotton socks 6:10, sneakers 8:10, boots gloves or hats 10:10, jeans 5:10, sweat pants without fuzzies or ankle band 3:10, west swim trunks 12:10, wet cheap store diapers 10:10, wet expensive diapers 4:10, bear hug or sensory hug -12:10 hug to love 12:10, light touch on shoulder  8:10, pressure touch on shoulder 2:10, hand shake 7:10, eye to eye contact 12:10, tapping  -4:10, weight compression vest tight -12:10, snug -8:10, 20 pound blanket-7:10, small space like Privacy bed tent -4:10.

e. taste hot sauce Frank's extra hot 4:10 with burn relaxing, peanut -2:10, crunchy potato chips  -2:10 to  -4:10, mashed potatoes gravy  8:10, cooked to over cooked macaroni and cheese  12:10 firm 2:10, pizza Pepperoni cheese Pizzq Hut Hand Tosed 2:10, chicken plain -2:10 hamburger plain 4:10, fish breaded 12:10 unbreaded 15:10.

f. environmental slightest pressure change 2:10 big pressure change  4:10, temperature changes plus minus 1 degrees Celsius  5:10 more than 2 degrees Celsius  10:10, humidity change 5:10. question to eltromegnitic field as I need to sleep with head to feet south to north easiest or east to west.

Goals in life and needed support by others.

Things that simple for most I struggle with. Things and needs I want help with

My Top Priority List includes Group Home and Day Program

1. Sensory problems
2. Meltdowns include the ones dont hurt
3. Life skills
4. Routine

My wants list


1. Friends - help me meet friends
2 language - understanding others language, intent, and communication of others
3. Family
4. Better communication skills
5. Help others from my life experiences
6. Be with people - positive people and those who have down syndrome who simple smile and have gifts of their own. I truly dont believe in level of IQ it's more important to me to be positive in life, be happy, and best of all people who enjoy others like me and simply understand others my difficulties.


My like list


1. Better communication all around
2. Lots of friends who hang around me
3. Be and meet everyone and especially famous people
4. College with masters no less in science of meteorology and dream school look at wishes
5. See a tornado for first time with experience storm chaser


Wishes


1. Everyone to get along with everyone. Global peace and peace within my great country USA. The global be United but separated nations.
2. Go to meteorology school at Oklahoma University and get a Doctoral Degree in the Science of Atmospheric Meteorology with Severe Weather,  Storm Systems, Mesoscale Meteorology Expert and Microscale Meteorology Expert to improve severe weather, tornado, lightning, hurricane, and winter storm forecasting including High and Low Pressure Systems.
3. A dream Meteorology improvements, somewhat true lightning strick forecasting and lighting out look forecast and research. Be able to save life of human and animals from short term Weather disasters with 48 hour notice including tornado risk at city level and flooding risk city level. Be able to help farmers in growing crops of all kinds in microclimate and short term, medium term, long term,  and year out seasonal forecasting.

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Weather Update May 16, 2019

Weather Forecast For May 16, 2019


Written By Andrew Ditch 
Written on: May 15, 2019 11:00 PM EDT
Updated: May 15, 2019 11:00 PM EDT

Today's Video 

We will have one later on May 16, 2019 for an update around 7 PM EDT and will include the US Summer Outlook 2019.

Today's Written Article 

National Weather News 

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Wed May 15 2019 Valid 00Z Thu May 16 2019 - 00Z Sat May 18 2019 ...Unsettled weather across much of the West, with heavy snowfall likely for the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada... ...Much above normal temperatures from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday with near record highs possible... ...Stationary boundary draped from the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains will support several days of locally heavy rainfall and potentially severe thunderstorms... ...Multi-day severe weather event possible beginning Friday across the Central U.S.... A strong upper level system arriving into the Western U.S. by tomorrow morning will bring several days of unsettled weather to much of the the Northwest and into the Rockies. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall is possible, especially along the favored terrain of central/northern California tonight, and the northern Rockies tomorrow. This system will usher in much below normal temperatures (10 to 20+ degrees below average) which will support moderate to heavy snowfall in some of the highest elevations. The best chance for significant snows will be in the Sierra Nevada where up to 2 feet of snow is possible and winter storm warnings are in effect. Meanwhile ahead of the trough, daytime temperatures from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will be very warm with daytime highs as much as 20 to 25 degrees above normal and a handful of record or near record highs possible. Showers and thunderstorms developing across the Northern Plains this afternoon will continue into tonight, with favorable conditions for scattered strong to severe storms. Rain will expand eastward Thursday and Friday into the Great Lakes and Midwest as a quasi-stationary boundary sets up across the region. This boundary will provide focus for convection and SPC has highlighted a narrow region along the front from the Central Plains to the upper Ohio Valley within a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday. Storms may contain locally heavy rainfall as well and WPC has placed roughly this same region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding tomorrow. As the Western U.S. trough kicks out into the Rockies on Friday, moist southerly flow ahead of it will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon across much of the Plains. Conditions will likely be favorable for strong to severe weather and heavy rainfall from Texas to South Dakota where SPC has a large slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. The best chance for excessive rain or flash flooding by Friday will be for portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest where the stalled frontal boundary may provide additional focus for multiple rounds of heavy rain. As the upper level system moves slowly east into the weekend, this will kick-start what could be a several day severe weather event across the Central states extending into the medium range period. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd



 Long Range Outlook For the USA 

Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2019

The May 2019 outlook is updated at the end of the month considering the latest
forecast guidance for the month of May, including dynamical model forecasts for
May average temperature and accumulated precipitation from the NCEP Climate
Forecast System (CFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), as well as
shorter range forecasts for week 1 and 2 from the NCEP GEFS, ECMWF, and
Canadian (ECCC) models, and guidance for weeks 3 and 4 from the CFS, ECMWF and
JMA models as well as the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a suite of
experimental and operational models, including the GEFS and ECCC models. The
background climate state is similar to that during the release of the prior May
outlook issued mid-April. El Nino conditions continue across the equatorial
Pacific, and are forecast to persist, likely into boreal summer. Equatorial
convection is enhanced near and just west of the International Date Line, and
upper-level anticyclonic circulations are observed to the north and south of
the equator. An MJO event developed recently, with enhanced convection
progressing eastward from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent in the
last week. Dynamical models  predict the progression of enhanced convection
across the Western Pacific in the next couple of weeks, where it may alter the
current El Nino influenced background state.

The temperature outlook indicates a larger area of enhanced probabilities of
below normal than the previous May outlook for much of the central CONUS east
of the Rockies. The area of likely below normal extends eastward to the western
Great Lakes, across the northern tier, and from the southern Rockies to western
Texas in the south. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures
continue in the outlook for much of the eastern CONUS, while likely below
normal temperatures for the Northeast early in the month lead to reduced
probabilities for May above average temperatures for the region. Dynamical
model forecasts for increased probabilities of below normal temperatures over
the central CONUS and above normal temperatures over the Southeast in week 2
appear to be influenced by an active MJO over the Western Pacific. Above normal
temperatures continue to be most likely for Alaska and the northwest CONUS,
under predicted ridging, with the highest probabilities over western and
southern coastal areas of Alaska, where above average sea surface temperatures
persist. Decadal trends  and dynamical model forecasts indicate a slightly
enhanced probability of above normal temperatures extending into parts of the
Southwest, west of the Four Corners region.

The precipitation outlook indicates substantially enhanced probabilities of
above normal from northeastern Texas into eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, as well
as the states of Arkansas and Missouri, where heavy precipitation is predicted
in dynamical model forecasts for the first week of May, and above normal
precipitation is likely throughout the month. The precipitation outlook for
above normal precipitation over much of the central CONUS and along the Gulf
Coast for May appears consistent with the current El Nino base state as
modified by MJO activity over the western Pacific. Dynamical model forecasts
predict enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for May from parts
of Central and Southern California eastward into the Central Rockies, and
across the Central and Southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley ahead of
troughing near the southwestern CONUS. The outlook indicates slightly enhanced
probabilities of above normal precipitation extending eastward to the
Appalachians and Florida, where dynamical model forecasts indicate below normal
precipitation in the first couple days of May and during the second half of the
month, but precipitation in model forecasts for week 2 increase the chances of
above normal for total monthly accumulated precipitation. The outlook indicates
equal chances of above and below normal precipitation for the Atlantic Coast
from Georgia to Maine. Dynamical model forecasts for May from the CFS and GEFS
continue to indicate enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation for
the southern Alaska Panhandle and for much of the Pacific Northwest, under a
predicted mid-level ridge, while above normal precipitation is likely for much
of western Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough over the Aleutians.

The previous discussion for the May 2019 outlook, issued April 18, follows
below:
______________________________________________________________________________

The May 2019 outlook is informed by various forecast tools, both dynamical and
statistical, and is issued against a tropical background state that is largely
dominated by ENSO. El Nino conditions remain in place across the equatorial
Pacific, and are forecast to persist into boreal summer. Forecast tools that
contribute to the 0.5-month lead May 2019 outlook also vary in terms of their
characteristic time scales. Medium range dynamical models  now extend into very
early May, and the the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance covers nearly the first half
of the month. These are in addition to guidance initialized during early April
for the entire month of May, which will tend to emphasize interannual
variability.

A good starting place for the May outlook is the calibrated NMME guidance. This
guidance is augmented by uncalibrated (but non-biased) forecast guidance from
the ECMWF and more recent runs of the CFS. Long-term trends  play a role as
well. Given the time of year, antecedent soil moisture conditions play a role
by affecting the partitioning of incident solar radiation between sensible and
latent heating.

The temperature outlook consists of above-normal temperatures favored in an
arc-like region from parts of the West Coast, across the northern tier, and
over much of the eastern CONUS. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored
over much of Alaska. Inspection of the forecast circulation for the CFS, for
example, reveals an ENSO-like wave dispersion featuring positive 200-hPa height
anomalies centered near and southeast of Hawaii, a weakness in above-normal
heights extending across parts of the eastern Pacific and southwestern North
America, and an anomalous 200-hPa ridge over west-central Canada extending
southeastward to the eastern CONUS. This general structure of the upper-level
height field is apparent in the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and is broadly
consistent with ENSO regressions, but shifted 10-20 degrees longitude eastward
over the Pacific-North America domain. While this circulation pattern is
sufficient to explain the overall temperature pattern, there are some other
factors at play. High-amplitude soil moisture anomalies over much of the
central CONUS extending into the Midwest have a negative impact on temperature
during the warm season, and lead to a reduction in above-normal probabilities
relative to model guidance over parts of the Upper Midwest and Plains.
Below-normal temperatures are more likely over parts of the Southern Plains,
where forecast above-normal rainfall and wetter-than-normal soils support the
model consensus. Equal chances is depicted over a large region encompassing
much of the Southwest and parts of the Great Basin. Dynamical models  are not in
good agreement here as the long-term warming trends  and a relatively cool
interannual signal are destructively interfering.

The precipitation outlook is consistent with the aforementioned circulation
pattern; above-normal rainfall is more likely near and east of the anomalous
cyclonic upper-level circulation. This extends over much of the interior West,
High Plains, and Southern/Central Plains. There is an eastward extension at
very modest probabilities across the Gulf Coast and Deep South consistent with
ENSO and the dynamical model consensus. There is a small region extending from
the Pacific Northwest to the Alaska panhandle where below-normal precipitation
is more likely. This is likewise based on the model consensus and consistent
with long-term trends . There was some consideration of depicting below-normal
rainfall over parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes in accordance with the
latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and recent CFS runs. However, this is a low-skill
region in the hindcast and contrary to long-term trends , so equal chances is
depicted over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS.

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1981 and 2010, following
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

The next monthly outlook...for Jun ... will be issued on Thu May 16 2019

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period.
$$
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html


 Buffalo, NY Weather News 

Near Term Forecast - I am forecasting showers with an isolated thundershower mainly before 1 AM. Then becoming partly cloudy late. Tomorrow looks good day with good breeze from the West Southwest. 

Long Term for WNY - I am forecasting above normal temperatures for end of this week into early next week. A bit of an active weather pattern setting up with increasing moisture and storms. Some of the storms as for right now are hinting to be strong side but way too far to forecast this. Stay tuned to Andy's Weather Site and The NWS Site at www.weather.gov and www.weather.gov/buf


Source: Andrew Ditch 

Tonight
Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 44. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Light southwest wind becoming west 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday
Showers likely, mainly before 8am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 65. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday
A slight chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night
A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday
A chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday
Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 64.

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Wednesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=42.940156&textField2=-78.722453

 Todays Trivia! 

None Today. A quick update on personal notes. Me still cant take care of myself because mix things of information from too many people trying to do their own thing to either get me proper help including autism testing for group home, or nothing because they are know it all doctors when they are only social workers for Adult Protection Services. Because the government in both family court and City Tonawanda Court states me being autism spectrum disorder and needing extra help in learning life's simple things like life skills. Yet I am smarter then they probably and still need a group home. Little do they know my primary doctor, People Center Services the Local OPWDD Autism Coordinator Services for my intake to link me to services, The Visiting Nurses feel I am needing autism testing and services such as group home. But the VNA Feels me developmental disabled and I was trying to say to my nurse before she left for the day yesterday, I dont want services because nothing wrong with me. She said because of my disability she cant let me cancel services unless a doctor says it or my guardianship says it which non of these say no I dont need it. She will listen to my recording of my APS Worker and her two rude supervisors who got me meltdown. I had a witness who is a autism behavior expert at a Autism Day Program who says if I am not autism then what is it? Is she wako or seeing different. She said what she says APS had a planned attack to bring me down in public and to embarrassed me. Well good thing I didnt feel this way because I dont understand language. I do know it was not nice and uncomfortable. Plus the tone of thier voices hurt my ears. All I am asking for is help with sensory problems, verbal communication both are reasons for my self injury meltdowns and that resulted in two arrests in 6 months. I so feel that if Forensics Doctors said me not able to make decision in court or medical I should be given a guardianship based on his writtings of Severe Autism, Sensory Processing Disorder and likely other Developmental Disabilities. Then to be going into ECMC to be told nothing wrong with me and a hospital I never had good luck with. I giving up because it is like me being nonverbal like before age 14 again. I do still need pictures to ask for things or to say my feelings or an ACC App like LetMeTalk for Android. I need OT, PT and Likely Speech Therapy. And aides who not here because me being in homeless. I cant even get help by needing help with diapers. Nothing wrong with me and been told I need diapers because of autism and sensory problems not being able to know when to go. But APS will be my reppayee not any other services for me. I am giving up on getting help I need or deserve. When I hear a friend who questioning my disability who worked in the nursing field of things telling me her 4 year old grand daughter can do things I cant do I cry. Then she says she knew I had issues but had to figure out who is lieing. Then to be told this person who I call Grandma because she is like it to me very caring and loving warm person like a Grandma who knows my needs who worked in Nursing Homes to tell me APS Tells her so many stories and me different ones to top things off. Then Me being told by my friend APS Tells her ... the APS Claims she cant even talk to her or have ever talked to her. All on audio recordings and made me want to cancel my autism testing on May 29. Then to be told nothing wrong with me I took off my diaper in my room and I later pee my pants and rug and socks and sneakers. I then texting a friend on Facebook and I pee myself and my weighed Blanket that is the only thing that relaxes me like my weighted compression vest. I tell APS Not to buy my diapers because I am faking it. I tell her to keep my money and food stamps because I wont be able to shop because I have sensory meltdowns in it even using ear muffs. I cant win with this. I have words and my words I have now are I want help I am smart show me. Teach me life skills and meltdown support. I have the right to treatment and the proper treatment. I have that autism behavior expert at Dunkin Donuts who said to me after I came back in because of a thunderstorm that could bring head banging meltdowns I am told by this lady I am asking for help and if I am not autism or developmental delay why is an autism program provider set up autism testing for May 29, and why do I stimm and have verbal language problems. I am smart and cant defend why I need help or defend my side of story and is big indicator for autism. She said my APS workers said I can use Uber to get to walmart 6 times to get things and me saying I cant shop for items I need most and even on a written list. I couldnt say I needed my whipes that took me 6 times to get them.Then to be shot down because I can use a computer, tablet and smart phone I am not autism. This autism person said like many people say Microsoft, EA Sports Games, and Video and Software Venders are only highering Autism People because We do It Writght and Do Work Well.


Please comment in the comments below. 
 Stay tuned to the answer to todays trivia question tomorrow!

Monday, April 29, 2019

Weather Forecast For April 29, 2019

Weather Forecast For April 29, 2019


Written By Andrew Ditch 
Written on: April 29, 2019 11:30 AM EDT
Updated: April 29, 2019 12:35 PM EDT

Todays Video 

None for toda! News update for tomarows Long Rang Outlook. I will share you the Atlantic Huricane Forecast Outlook for 2019.

Todays Written Article 

National Weather News 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2019 - 12Z Wed May 1 2019

...Active weather pattern continues across the Plains and the Rockies...

The weather pattern will continue to be unsettled across much of the
Plains and extending westward across the Rockies.  A quasi-stationary
frontal boundary is forecast to become established from the central
Rockies to the Midwest, and also extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic
region.   Multiple waves of low pressure are expected along this front and
result in areas of enhanced rainfall.  The heaviest rain is likely from
northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan, with some locations getting 2 to 4
inches of rain by Wednesday morning.  There is an increased threat of
flash flooding across the central plains where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are expected.  The threat of severe weather increases across
the southern plains on Monday with the best moisture and upper level
forcing residing over this region, and then across the central plains on
Tuesday in the warm sector of the surface low.

Across the Rockies, heavy snow will be making headlines for the beginning
of the week with the potential for 1 to 2 feet of accumulation for the
higher mountain ranges.  This will be enhanced by moist upslope flow on
the north side of the front.  Some snow is also likely across the western
High Plains from western Nebraska to eastern Montana.

Temperatures will continue to remain below average across the northern
tier of the nation through the beginning of the week, with the greatest
departures from normal across the northern plains.  Warmer than normal
readings are expected across the Desert Southwest and southern plains,
south of the frontal boundaries.

D. Hamrick



 Long Range Outlook For the USA 

Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2019

The May 2019 outlook is informed by various forecast tools, both dynamical and
statistical, and is issued against a tropical background state that is largely
dominated by ENSO. El Nino conditions remain in place across the equatorial
Pacific, and are forecast to persist into boreal summer. Forecast tools that
contribute to the 0.5-month lead May 2019 outlook also vary in terms of their
characteristic time scales. Medium range dynamical models  now extend into very
early May, and the the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance covers nearly the first half
of the month. These are in addition to guidance initialized during early April
for the entire month of May, which will tend to emphasize interannual
variability.

A good starting place for the May outlook is the calibrated NMME guidance. This
guidance is augmented by uncalibrated (but non-biased) forecast guidance from
the ECMWF and more recent runs of the CFS. Long-term trends  play a role as
well. Given the time of year, antecedent soil moisture conditions play a role
by affecting the partitioning of incident solar radiation between sensible and
latent heating.

The temperature outlook consists of above-normal temperatures favored in an
arc-like region from parts of the West Coast, across the northern tier, and
over much of the eastern CONUS. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored
over much of Alaska. Inspection of the forecast circulation for the CFS, for
example, reveals an ENSO-like wave dispersion featuring positive 200-hPa height
anomalies centered near and southeast of Hawaii, a weakness in above-normal
heights extending across parts of the eastern Pacific and southwestern North
America, and an anomalous 200-hPa ridge over west-central Canada extending
southeastward to the eastern CONUS. This general structure of the upper-level
height field is apparent in the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and is broadly
consistent with ENSO regressions, but shifted 10-20 degrees longitude eastward
over the Pacific-North America domain. While this circulation pattern is
sufficient to explain the overall temperature pattern, there are some other
factors at play. High-amplitude soil moisture anomalies over much of the
central CONUS extending into the Midwest have a negative impact on temperature
during the warm season, and lead to a reduction in above-normal probabilities
relative to model guidance over parts of the Upper Midwest and Plains.
Below-normal temperatures are more likely over parts of the Southern Plains,
where forecast above-normal rainfall and wetter-than-normal soils support the
model consensus. Equal chances is depicted over a large region encompassing
much of the Southwest and parts of the Great Basin. Dynamical models  are not in
good agreement here as the long-term warming trends  and a relatively cool
interannual signal are destructively interfering.

The precipitation outlook is consistent with the aforementioned circulation
pattern; above-normal rainfall is more likely near and east of the anomalous
cyclonic upper-level circulation. This extends over much of the interior West,
High Plains, and Southern/Central Plains. There is an eastward extension at
very modest probabilities across the Gulf Coast and Deep South consistent with
ENSO and the dynamical model consensus. There is a small region extending from
the Pacific Northwest to the Alaska panhandle where below-normal precipitation
is more likely. This is likewise based on the model consensus and consistent
with long-term trends . There was some consideration of depicting below-normal
rainfall over parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes in accordance with the
latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and recent CFS runs. However, this is a low-skill
region in the hindcast and contrary to long-term trends , so equal chances is
depicted over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS.

FORECASTER: Stephen Baxter

The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1981 and 2010, following
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

An updated monthly outlook... for May will be issued on Tue April 30 2019

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period.
$$


Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html


Buffalo, NY Weather News 


Today
Cloudy, with a high near 51. East wind around 11 mph.

Tonight
Rain before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Low around 38. East wind 5 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind around 6 mph.

Tuesday Night
A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 44. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. East wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night
Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday
Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 62.

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=42.99&textField2=-78.91#.XMcTDvUpA0g

 Todays Trivia! 

What year was the warmest May on record in Buffalo, NY?

What year was the wettest on record for April for Dallas, TX?

April 26, 2019 Trivia Question Was? When was the strongest tornado in WNY History?

Buffalo's latest snow fall on record happened on May 20, 1907. If you click on the interactive map and zoom into WNY and click on the Star indicting Buffalo, NY it will show you more details. Source link is https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/spring-last-snow-of-season-interactive-map






Please comment in the comments below. 
 Stay tuned to the answer to todays trivia question tomorrow!